First, President Obama has committed himself to military action to stop or at least slow down Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons. Presidents often make threats. These threats are argued to help commit a president to future action because if a leader backs down after making a threat he or she will suffer “audience costs”, that is, a loss of popularity....

Second, Iran would prefer to have the US destroy its nuclear facilities rather than back down. This part of the argument is necessarily more speculative. It seems quite plausible, though. To back down in the face of US and Israeli threats would be to capitulate before the Great Satan. It would mean an enormous loss of prestige for the Islamic regime. Standing fast and enduring an airstrike, in contrast, would be an enormous propaganda victory....

So I’m betting on conflict in the Persian Gulf in 2013. Any promising startups in the mine detection business?